Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
